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Welcome to the Victor Niederhoffer Puppet Show Recent market action seems to continue to follow the summer of 2007 play book. If we are correct about this, we could see another day or two of declines followed by a sharp rise before we start spiraling down again in the fall. To see what we mean, take a look at this table, or just read our May 6 article balenciaga classic city in its entirety. Our guess is that May 20, 2010 is going to be a replay of August 14, 2007 or August 17, 2007 we give those scenarios a 75%/25% respective chance of occurring later today.
It seems ridiculous, balenciaga pompon handbagseven to ourselves, that we can even suggest looking at a table of daily returns from two years ago, and proclaim like some Velcroturbaned, occult palm reader that there is some kind of probability balenciaga part time giant 12 of history repeating itself today. But maybe not. Maybe that's all that this market has turned into.
We seem to recall that Victor Niederhoffer, or one of his friends, built a software program in the 1980s that looked for thousands of historical market patterns and bet according to them. If our currency hedge fund friends are doing this by the microsecond in currencies, then you can be sure there balenciaga town bag are some oldschool billionaires still playing with versions of their old FORTRAN software and betting the same way in the equity markets. In times of balenciaga papier baguncertainty, people gravitate to what they know. The last two to three years are burned into everyone's minds. The situation may be different, but there seems to be an ongoing similarity in daily return data between now and the summer of 2007. So why shouldn't the puppet show continue to repeat itself?
In any case, now that we are hedged again with a short bias, we don't really care what happens. Any sharp rise in the markets should be mitigated a bit, and meanwhile we stay poised to benefit from any continued balenciaga first trending downturn. If we do experience a sharp rise, we will be giving back some gains we have made relative to the index. In other words, we have positioned ourselves to either be more right, or less right which is more or less what marketing oneself working on Wall Street is all about.
Separately, Wednesday, May 19, 2010 was another great day for quantitative hedge funds as our model long ideas declined http://www.balenciagatop.com/ less than the market and model short ideas declined more. From what we have seen, our model portfolios tend to generally track the direction of real hedge funds. The only thing that is missing is an intra day technical indicator though we have played with those. Our take is that intraday technical indicators tend to limit upside as much as downside. However, in this ugly market, it might be a good idea to start pulling those intraday indicators off the shelf again. Or better yet, just stay in any cash raised at the open on balenciaga purses May 6.